Parties say they have “plan B” if mobile networks go down

“Network busy.”

This obstructive message is expected to flash across mobile phone screens throughout election day as call volumes skyrocket. Cell phone companies and the government are planning for possible mobile network disruptions as 587 candidates vie for 128 seats and voters travel the country to cast ballots on June 7.

“There might be problems,” said Gilbert Najjar, a Ministry of Telecommunications representative on the Owner Supervisory Committee, which works with Lebanon’s two mobile phone companies. “We will have enough capacity [on the mobile phone networks, but] the networks are a living entity, and people’s behavior can’t be predicted 100 percent.”

By May 15, work should be complete for Lebanon’s mobile networks to handle 2.2 million subscribers, well above the 1.8 million actual customers, Najjar said. However, the networks are a patchwork of cell towers spread across the country, each covering a specific area. Too many calls directed at one tower would overload it and thwart all calls and text messages until activity dies down – as frequently happened from late 2004 until last year when bombings plagued Lebanon.

Najjar refused to disclose specific numbers on cell capacity capabilities, and the companies that manage the networks, Alfa and MTC Touch, refused interview requests. The government, which owns the two mobile networks, and the phone companies, are discussing strategies for keeping disruptions to a minimum on election day, Najjar said, again declining to be specific.

Political parties, meanwhile, are anticipating network failures and plotting how to keep in touch with candidates, talk to operatives watching the polls and call supporters to remind them to vote. Voting on one day will likely prove to be a logistical nightmare, and communication will be key for political parties pushing to maximize turnout in what is shaping up to be a very close election.

The communications strategy on election day is a closely guarded secret, and representatives from some of the country’s largest parties, from both sides of the political divide, spoke of their plans with NOW only on the condition of anonymity.

Most said they would rely on the fixed line network.

“We have an old radio system,” one party representative said. “We have field coverage in one district so we will use it. […] It is really heritage from the [civil] war, and we still have it running. But we’re not depending on it. I’m depending on the fixed line because it won’t shut down.” 

The source said the party looked into buying satellite phones but found them to be prohibitively expensive. Handheld satellite phones – somewhat bulkier than a normal mobile phone, with distinct, thick plastic or retractable metal antennas – range in price from $750 to $1,750. More sophisticated satellite phone set-ups that include fast Internet connections and extra hardware start at $2,500. Phone calls on either device are around $1 per minute to other satellite phones on the same network.

NOW repeatedly heard rumors that parties were investing thousands of dollars on satellite phone systems, but could not directly confirm those reports.

“No one [in the party] knows how we’ll communicate on election day,” another political party official said. The decision is to be made by the highest authorities, and the plan will be kept secret until “about three days before the election.”